SWODY2
SPC AC 161615
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NW TX/SRN OK DURING THE DAY. BY
00Z...A COLD FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NWRN TX INTO SERN
OK. WITH MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SERN
STATES...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED.
ELSEWHERE...ELY WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL HELP TO INCREASE
MOISTURE ACROSS FL...WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
...RED RIVER VALLEY INTO ERN OK...NWRN AR AND SWRN MO...
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SLY WINDS WILL HELP TO
TRANSPORT AT LEAST MID 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NWD ACROSS TX
AND INTO CNTRL OK BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPPING
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES A BIT COOL.
HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND FAVORABLE LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COLD
FRONT. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AS WELL AS FAVORABLY LONG
HODOGRAPHS WOULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND PERHAPS SOME
GUSTY WINDS. THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...AIDED BY FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY.
..JEWELL.. 10/16/2011
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