SWODY2
SPC AC 160558
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE U.S. THIS
PERIOD...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES -- EMBEDDED WITHIN
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE STRONG UPPER VORTEX CENTERED OVER ERN
CANADA -- DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD...A SHARP RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER THE WRN CONUS...WHILE A
DEEP/EXPANSIVE TROUGH RESIDES OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AND ERN NOAM.
AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE BAROTROPIC LOW OVER ERN CANADA SHOULD
WEAKEN WITH TIME...WHILE A WEAK LOW INITIALLY INVOF OK DEEPENS
SLOWLY AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MID MS/TN VALLEYS LATE. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT -- AT THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SE OUT OF
THE ROCKIES -- WILL SURGE SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...REACHING THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO LATE.
...ARKLATEX/OZARKS REGION...
WHILE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO
THE COOL SIZE OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS SRN MO...ISOLATED
SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND A SLOWLY
WEAKENING CAP OCCURS THROUGH PEAK HEATING. PRESUMING STORM
INITIATION OCCURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...UPDRAFTS WOULD BE AIDED
KINEMATICALLY -- WITH LOW-LEVEL SLYS INCREASING TO WSWLY AT 40 KT AT
MID LEVELS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION/ROTATION.
ATTM...POTENTIAL THAT CAPPING PRECLUDES ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED
SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT RISK AREA. HOWEVER...WILL INTRODUCE LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA...AS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY
BE CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR A DAMAGING WIND GUST. THREAT MAY
EXTEND EWD INTO ERN AR DURING THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN
DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION.
..GOSS.. 10/16/2011
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