SWODY1
SPC AC 161238
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS AN
EMBEDDED SPEED MAX PIVOTS EWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR FROM UPPER MI TO LAKE ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO COLD AIR ALOFT N OF THE JET...AND AUGMENTATION OF
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKES. FARTHER W...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE INTERIOR PAC NW TOWARD THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
THE ZONE OF ASCENT PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL WAVE.
OTHERWISE...A TROPICAL LOW APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. NE OF THE LOW...A MOIST AIR MASS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S RESIDES ACROSS THE FL KEYS. THIS MOISTURE
WILL MAINTAIN 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE /PER 12Z MIAMI AND KEY WEST
SOUNDINGS/ IN A NEARLY SATURATED AND POOR LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
DESPITE THE MODEST INSTABILITY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR COULD MARGINALLY SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS ACROSS THE KEYS AND
FL STRAITS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 10/16/2011
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