DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 201723
SWODY2
SPC AC 201722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR SWRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD SWLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL
U.S. WITH SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS HELPING TO BRING
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE NWD. A SFC TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE UPPER
MS VALLEY SWWD TO A WEAK LOW OVER SRN KS AT 00Z...THEN CONTINUING
SWWD INTO WRN TX. OVERNIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF
NRN MEXICO INTO W TX...AND WILL HELP FOCUS NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE. TO THE N...PERSISTENT SLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD INTO IA...WITH A FEW NOCTURNAL STORMS LIKELY
THERE AS WELL.

...SWRN TX OVERNIGHT...
CAPPING WILL EXIST FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS SW TX...WITH UPPER
HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS
WILL BE LURKING JUST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...AND WILL RETURN NWWD OVERNIGHT AS 850 MB FLOW INCREASES TO
OVER 20 KT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
SOME COOLING ALOFT AND LIFT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A STREAK OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN 03-06Z SE OF ELP AND SPREADING NEWD
ACROSS THE MAF AREA AFTER 06Z. WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SOME HAIL IS LIKELY. COVERAGE OF
SEVERE IS UNCERTAIN...AS SOME MODELS INDICATE MORE CAPPING PROBLEMS
THAN OTHERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL THREAT...WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK.

...IA...NRN MO...WRN IL...ERN NEB AND FAR NERN KS...
INCREASING LIFT WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A RASH OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AFTER 03Z...MOST LIKELY
CENTERED OVER IA AND NRN MO. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 10/20/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.