DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 200737
SWODY3
SPC AC 200736

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG POLAR JET WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS LARGE
SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY. THE
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO COAST IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TO MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SPATIOTEMPORAL DIFFERENCES EXIST AT THE DAY 3
JUNCTURE...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
STEADILY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.
WHILE A PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...VERTICAL SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/MODEST DESTABILIZATION MAY
ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST SPORADIC WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF OK/NORTH TX TO THE OZARKS.

FARTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY...SCATTERED
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING. MORNING
HAIL POTENTIAL AFTER 12Z MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL...BUT A FEW
STRONG STORMS MAY NONETHELESS BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS
SUCH AS IA AND THE ADJACENT UPPER MS VALLEY IS UNCERTAIN...AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY/MASS CONVERGENCE MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK. NONETHELESS...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
A MOIST/MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND/OR
WARM FRONT.

...COASTAL NORTHERN CA/ORE...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION INCLUDING SOME TSTMS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL AREAS OF ORE/NORTHERN
CA AND PERHAPS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY ACCOUNT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
POTENTIAL...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

..GUYER.. 10/20/2012

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