ACUS48 KWNS 200852
SWOD48
SPC AC 200851
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET IMPLY THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN /00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS
AMPLIFIED VS OTHER GUIDANCE/.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON DAYS
5-6 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AS AN UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHIFT EASTWARD
AND ENCOUNTER A RELATIVELY MOIST AUTUMNAL AIRMASS...ORGANIZED SEVERE
TSTMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MO
VALLEY ON DAY 5/WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY
AND LOWER MO VALLEY ON DAY 6/THURSDAY. WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
TSTMS ARE PROBABLE ON THESE DAYS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REGARDING UPPER TROUGH
AMPLITUDE/TIMING PRECLUDES A DELINEATION OF ANY SPECIFIC SEVERE RISK
AREAS AT THIS TIME.
..GUYER.. 10/20/2012
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