SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151737
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-151900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0805
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LA...SERN AR...WRN MS...SWRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151737Z - 151900Z
WIDESPREAD PULSE TYPE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ENHANCED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING E THROUGH THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH AMPLE INSTABILITY EXISTS...PALTRY
SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. THIS SHOULD RESTRICT THE SEVERE
THREAT TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS.
RADAR AND LIGHTNING IMAGERY HAVE DEPICTED NUMEROUS TSTMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY NEAR MEM SWWD TOWARDS THE SABINE RIVER
VALLEY IN ERN TX/WRN LA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED IN CONJUCTION WITH
A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...AND
ALONG SSW TO NNE-ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE BANDS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN
THE UPPER 60S. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...VERY WEAK SHEAR /AROUND 10 KTS PER REGIONAL VAD PROFILERS/
WILL MITIGATE OVERALL ORGANIZATION TO PULSE TYPE STORMS WITH SOME
TENDENCY TO EVOLVE INTO MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-12 TO -13 DEG C AT 500 MB IN 12Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS/ WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT.
.GRAMS.. 05/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
35708950 34598978 33129040 31669092 30439180 30109272
30419374 31359404 32659343 35289101
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