SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150802
MIZ000-150930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0802
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LWR MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 150802Z - 150930Z
STRONG TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY NORTH OF THE KGRR VCNTY. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE MECHANICS OF THE INITIATION GIVEN THE
SEEMINGLY LACK OF OVERALL UPR SUPPORT AND SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARIES. VWP FROM KGRR DOES SHOW A STRONG WSWLY LLJ OF 65 KTS IN
THE 0.5-1KM LAYER... RESULTING IN MODEST WARM ADVECTION...SO
THINKING IS THAT MORE STORMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL
LWR MI THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
AS COOLER OUTFLOW WINDS SPREAD SEWD FROM NWRN LWR MI.
LOW AND MID-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WOULD SUGGEST THAT A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT WAS BEING ADVECTED NEWD AHEAD OF THE ELONGATED FRONT N
OF THE REGION. THUS...UPDRAFTS WILL TEND TO BE STRONG AND COULD
ORGANIZE INTO PULSE-TYPE SVR CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS
HIGH WINDS. MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE INFLUX IS NOT OPTIMUM FOR
WIDESPREAD SVR STORMS...HOWEVER...WITH UPSTREAM SOURCE REGION PWAT
VALUES AROUND AN INCH. NONETHELESS...A SUSTAINED STORM MAY YIELD
SPORADIC SVR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR.
IF ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND/OR INCREASE IN COVERAGE...A
WW MAY BE POSSIBLE.
.RACY.. 05/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
43568604 44158509 44358422 44158324 43758308 43338376
43118496 42958587
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