SWODY3
SPC AC 150717
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..4-CORNERS...SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...
SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN DEEP SELY FLOW
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FAVOR
MOISTURE GRADUALLY SPREADING NNWWD ACROSS NM INTO THE 4-CORNERS
REGION...MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR DEEP CONVECTION BENEATH WEAK FLOW
REGIME. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN DAYTIME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY AIDED BY WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
BROAD BACKGROUND SUPPORT FOR DEEP CONVECTION SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR WIND/HAIL AT THIS TIME.
..FL...
00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING SFC
CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH-EAST OF THE FL PENINSULA LATER THIS WEEK.
WHETHER THE ACTUAL LOW IS OVER CUBA...AS THE GFS PREDICTS...OR WELL
NE PER THE NAM...AN ELONGATED N-S ZONE OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE PENINSULA BENEATH WEAK UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW.
ANY HEATING INLAND WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. IN FACT...IT APPEARS DAY3 MAY BE
CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE ACROSS MOST OF THE PENINSULA. SOME HAIL/WIND
COULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. WILL HOLD PROBABILITIES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY/SHEAR.
.DARROW.. 05/15/2007
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