SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151827
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-152000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0806
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NY...NH...VT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151827Z - 152000Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IF SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE ACROSS NY...VT OR NH.
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A
WW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER SWRN ONTARIO WITH A 1005 MB
LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND SFC LOW...WINDS ARE
VEERED AND A THERMAL AXIS EXISTS ACROSS WRN NY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 80S F. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE
THERMAL AXIS...SFC-BASED INITIATION WILL BECOME POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN SRN NY WHERE A BAND OF EXPANDING CUMULUS IS EVIDENT ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY. INITIATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST IN
THE HUDSON RIVER...MOHAWK AND CONNECTICUT VALLEYS WHERE SFC TEMPS
WILL BE LOCALLY WARMER AS WELL. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY
SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A 60
KT MID-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER SWRN ONTARIO. IF STORMS
INITIATE...THE SHEAR COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
THREAT ESPECIALLY WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS OR
ORGANIZED LINES THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
.BROYLES.. 05/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
42207368 42117603 42057722 42127856 43067858 43367735
43367622 43477463 43357250 42317224
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