SWODY1
SPC AC 061255
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST TUE NOV 06 2007
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH OVER THE UPR GRT LKS WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES E
INTO ERN ONTARIO/WRN NY LATER TODAY...AND INTO QUEBEC EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CP AIR WILL INVADE THE LWR LKS AND NERN STATES...
REACHING THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS BY THIS EVENING AND MOST OF FL
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OFF
THE MID / N ATLANTIC CST...AND OVER THE LWR GRT LKS.
..LWR GRT LKS...
LEADING EDGE OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /AOB MINUS 30C AT 500 MB/ HAS
REACHED WRN NY AND NW PA THIS MORNING AND WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF UPSTATE NY INTO NW NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING. DEEP...
MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE LKS...AND VERY
DEEP MIXED LAYER...SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE PLUME DEVELOPMENT IN
THE LEE OF LKS ERIE AND ONTARIO. TEMPORAL VEERING OF WIND PROFILES
AND PASSAGE OF UPR TROUGH AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN LK ERIE PLUME THIS
AFTN. HOWEVER ...SETUP SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PLUME MODE
THROUGH THIS EVENING E OF LK ONTARIO. GIVEN WARM LAKE / LWR CLOUD
TEMPERATURES AND DEGREE OF COOLING ALOFT...SCTD EMBEDDED THUNDER
APPEARS LIKELY.
MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY WITH ISOLD LIGHTNING
STRIKES...SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO.
.CORFIDI/GUYER.. 11/06/2007
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