SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211514
NCZ000-211715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0676
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 211514Z - 211715Z
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY NEXT FEW
HOURS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS GENERALLY LOW...BUT TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED.
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS NOW OFFSHORE...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT EAST/
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MAINTAINING MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE BENEATH A LINGERING MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OVER EAST CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE UNTIL
ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK IMPULSE
PIVOTS AROUND ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY.
DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
INHIBITION FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS IS ALREADY BECOMING
NEGLIGIBLE. AND...WITH FURTHER HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS...AS EARLY AS THE 16-18Z TIME
FRAME...MOSTLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF RALEIGH INTO COASTAL AREAS.
ALTHOUGH MIXED LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED MOSTLY ON THE ORDER OF 500
J/KG...LOCALIZED HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH COOL SOUNDINGS
BENEATH -22C 500 MB COLD CORE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.
WEAK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HAIL SIZE...BUT SOME OF THIS COULD
APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. GIVEN AT LEAST LIGHT
VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...AND THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE
AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY NEAR THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
CIRCULATION...TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.
BUT...THIS THREAT APPEARS LOW.
..KERR.. 04/21/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
35927910 36337876 36517784 36297661 35437615 34717677
34117774 34607837 35417894
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