SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220329
OKZ000-220500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 212...
VALID 220329Z - 220500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 212 CONTINUES.
SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR
PNC SWWD TO NEAR CSM THEN WWD GENERALLY ALONG I-40 INTO TX
PANHANDLE. WRN OK SFC LOW IS DISSIPATING...BUT MAY REDEVELOP/BLEND
WITH LEE-SIDE CYCLONE OVER SRN TX PANHANDLE LATER
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN RESUMPTION OF SWD DRIFT OF FRONTAL ZONE.
MEANWHILE...DRYLINE CONTINUES TO RETREAT WWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL AND
SWRN OK...WITH DEW POINTS RISING AT FSI/LTS.
INITIAL PAIR OF LEFT-/RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS HAS DISSIPATED AMIDST
STRENGTHENING SBCINH...AND IR CLOUD TRENDS INDICATE NO OTHER AREAS
OF GROWING/DEEPENING CONVECTION ATTM. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL
CONTINUE...WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ CONTRIBUTING TO 0-1 KM SRH 150-300
J/KG DERIVED FROM MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND VWP. AS CAPPING
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS...SO
DOES CONVERGENCE REQUIRED TO OVERCOME IT...WHICH WOULD REFOCUS ANY
REMAINING DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL WWD TOWARD FRONTAL ZONE...SFC LOW
AND DRYLINE. RETREATING NOCTURNAL DRYLINES WITH WEAK SFC WINDS...IN
SITUATIONS OF DIABATICALLY STRENGTHENING SBCINH...TYPICALLY RESULT
IN DECREASING CONVECTIVE INITIATION PROBABILITIES WITH TIME. IF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DOES NOT DEVELOP WITHIN ANOTHER 1-2
HOURS...PORTIONS WW MAY BE CANCELED.
..EDWARDS.. 04/22/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
34119767 36029774 36349652 35489596 34159636
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