MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0831

ACUS11 KWNS 182054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182054
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-182230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0831
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...NWRN NEB...SWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182054Z - 182230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING FROM ERN WY INTO SWRN SD AND NWRN NEB
INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE...AND OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN ND SWWD THROUGH
CNTRL AND SWRN SD INTO SERN WY. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE
30S SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM SERN WY INTO EXTREME SWRN SD...BUT
ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50F ON THE COOLER SIDE.
MLCAPE HAS INCREASE TO 500 J/KG ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS ARE
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 40S. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATE AN INVERSION PRESENT BETWEEN 850-700 MB. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY...THE BLACK HILLS
OF SD AND GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. OTHER HIGH BASED
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED BUT LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME HAIL MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...OVERALL
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 45070030 43710061 42310230 41480452 42310530 43630509
44300342 45070030

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