DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 180532
SWODY2
SPC AC 180531

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS...

...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY2
PERIOD AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM CO/NM INTO NEB/KS/WRN OK
BY 20/00Z. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST SFC PRESSURE WILL RISE IN
THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES FORCING A COLD FRONT TO A POSITION
FROM NRN MN...SWWD ACROSS SERN NEB INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY PEAK
HEATING. VERY WARM EML WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SLGT RISK REGION
EARLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WITHIN THE
ELONGATED WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE CAP IT APPEARS SFC TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70.
EVEN SO...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS KS/NWRN OK/TX
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE CAP AND COMBINED WITH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST
BEHIND THE ADVANCING WIND SHIFT TOWARD EARLY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL
UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SUPERCELLS. LATEST DATA ALSO
SUGGESTS A CONCENTRATION OF POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY BE NOTED DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WARM SECTOR CAP. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDING TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER WHERE WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
GIVEN THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY BE
RESERVED TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS IT APPEARS THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
WARM ADVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD ENHANCE THE
LONGEVITY OF THIS CONVECTION AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE.


...ELSEWHERE...

SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE NOTED ALONG THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC/SERN U.S. COAST. WITH SFC RIDGING EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR NEAR THE NC COAST AND ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA. VERY ISOLATED TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE
HEAT OF THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES
BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE THIS WILL PROVE QUITE SPARSE AND LIKELY WEAK.

..DARROW.. 05/18/2012

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