MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0832

ACUS11 KWNS 182154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182154
MNZ000-IAZ000-182300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0832
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL / SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182154Z - 182300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO MID-EVENING. A
WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED OWING TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...A N-S BAND OF TSTMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM NEAR
STC SWD TO JUST N OF FRM...APPARENTLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING NEWD THROUGH THE MID-MO
VALLEY. AMBIENT AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE T-TD SPREADS ARE APPROACHING 50 F. WHILE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUB-OPTIMAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND
SUSTENANCE...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG MAY PROMOTE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING
POTENTIAL WITH RESULTANT SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE
LEVELS.

..MEAD.. 05/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 43599508 45199480 46019458 46329423 46339337 45699304
44559322 43759366 43579418 43489462 43599508

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.