MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0829

ACUS11 KWNS 181703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181703
FLZ000-181830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...S FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 181703Z - 181830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS S FL THIS
AFTERNOON. WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM.

DISCUSSION...MID-DAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 80S ACROSS S FL. THIS HEATING IS AIDING IN STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. AS A
RESULT...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
FEW HRS. MODIFIED 12Z MFL RAOB FOR A SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE
MID/UPR 80S AND DEWPOINT IN THE LOW 70S YIELDS MLCAPE VALUES NEAR
2500 J/KG. THE STRONG BUOYANCY COMBINED WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SPEEDS /PER AMX VWP/ WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS POSING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

..GARNER/WEISS.. 05/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON 26618141 26808081 26738000 25298035 25208114 26098165
26618141

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