MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0830

ACUS11 KWNS 181705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181705
WYZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-181900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0830
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN UT...NWRN CO AND SWRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181705Z - 181900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NERN UT...NWRN CO INTO SWRN WY WILL
POST A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN WY
SWWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN UT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN
ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
WITH NEAR SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED
TO AOB 500 J/KG PROVIDING A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE
ROBUST SEVERE STORM THREAT. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH INCREASINGLY LARGE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON 41980726 40510787 39490957 40041098 41660987 42440804
41980726

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