SWODY1
SPC AC 170547
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST WED DEC 16 2009
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
FORMIDABLE UPR-LVL WAVE OVER NERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE
INTO THE LWR MS VLY AND WRN GULF BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN WILL CORRESPONDINGLY DEEPEN AND
BEGIN A NEWD TREK TOWARD THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE PERIOD.
TO THE E...A WRMFNT WILL GRADUALLY REDEVELOP E AND N TOWARD WRN FL
AND NWD THROUGH SRN FL BY 12Z FRIDAY.
...SWRN/SRN FL...
LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SRN FL AND THE ERN GULF
BASIN...MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEGINS BACKING
TO THE SE. INCREASING MAGNITUDE OF WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY DRIVE
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...MITIGATING STRONG DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS... EFFECTIVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST ISOLD STRONG STORMS
ACROSS CSTL SERN FL WHERE STRONGEST HEATING IS LIKELY.
TSTM AND LOW SVR PROBABILITIES WILL ESCALATE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS
HIGHER-QUALITY LLVL THETA-E AIR MASS SURGES NWD AND LARGER SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD TOWARD THE ERN GULF BASIN/WRN FL. STRONGER
STORMS...POSSIBLY A DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE
WRN FL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. BUT...ISOLD STORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND
GUSTS OR PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO COULD DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM INVOF THE
RETREATING WRMFNT IN SWRN/SRN FL THURSDAY NIGHT.
..RACY.. 12/17/2009
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