SWODY1
SPC AC 171940
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST THU DEC 17 2009
VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...S FL...
NO CHANGES APPEAR NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WITH LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
INCREASING SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION MAY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A FEW
ROTATING CELLS...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN 2% TORNADO PROBABILITY ALONG
WITH LOW-END WIND POTENTIAL.
..GOSS.. 12/17/2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST THU DEC 17 2009/
...S FL...
VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF STALLED SFC
FRONT ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF FL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL GOM. THESE SHOULD CONSOLIDATE
INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT NNEWD LATE TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS/DEEPENS AND SHIFTS TO JUST OFF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF SRN STREAM
IMPULSE SPREADING ACROSS ERN TX/WRN GULF BASIN EARLY TODAY.
PERSISTENT...MOIST ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WWD ACROSS S FL THROUGH THE DAY WITHIN MODERATE
INSTABILITY. A FEW MORE ROBUST STORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE...ALTHOUGH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TODAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS BOTH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN GOM AHEAD OF APPROACHING SRN STREAM
SYSTEM. ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE FL WEST COAST TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS WITH
THREATS FOR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR A TORNADO INCREASING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
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