MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0639

ACUS11 KWNS 140336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140335
MTZ000-140430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0639
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159...

VALID 140335Z - 140430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...ALLOWING WW 159 TO EXPIRE AT 04Z.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD FROM
CENTRAL MT INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION
IN CONVECTION WITH EWD EXTENT. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL WAA AND THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING MAINLY
ELEVATED GIVEN THE INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED INHIBITION. THUS...THE
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AND PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH ISSUANCE.

..PETERS.. 05/14/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 46391222 46941288 48231327 48601213 48361119 48470677
47080730 46391222

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