DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 130548
SWODY2
SPC AC 130547

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER FLOW FIELD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE ERN NOAM
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES VACATING THE NERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IN ITS WAKE...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL INCREASINGLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE U.S. -- THOUGH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT QUICKLY EWD WITHIN THE FAST WLY FLOW. ONE SUCH
TROUGH -- PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
AND ADJACENT N CENTRAL U.S. -- WILL SUPPORT LOW-END SEVERE RISK FOR
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A
CAPPED WARM SECTOR WILL EXIST OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THIS
REGION. WHILE FAVORABLY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WOULD OTHERWISE PORTEND RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...IT
APPEARS THAT ASIDE FROM A ROGUE/ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM INVOF THE
COLD FRONT...CAPPING SHOULD PROVE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO MITIGATE
MOST OF THIS POTENTIAL.

SOME THREAT FOR HAIL REMAINS APPARENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY INVOF NRN LOWER MI AS A
LOW-LEVEL JET AIMS INTO THIS REGION INCREASING QG-FORCED ASCENT.
OTHERWISE HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE RISK ALONG THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON -- EXTENDING AS FAR SWWD AS NERN NEB/WRN
IA NEAR THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.

..GOSS.. 05/13/2013

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