DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 311729
SWODY2
SPC AC 311728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX HILL
COUNTRY AND TX COASTAL PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT
AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD ONTO THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN AND INTO THE ARKLATEX MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL AND EAST TX BY
MONDAY AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES MAINLY DUE TO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS INITIATE ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING NUMEROUS STORMS FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY NEWD INTO THE
ARKLATEX WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN
AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. IN SPITE OF WHAT COULD BE A LATE INITIATION...A SEVERE
THREAT COULD EXIST IN THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND TX HILL COUNTRY
MONDAY EVENING AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MONDAY EVENING...A FEW STORMS COULD ROTATE RESULTING IN A HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE THREAT. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT RISK FROM
AROUND SAN ANTONIO ENEWD TO THE HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION AREAS.
FURTHER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND WRN LA...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.

..BROYLES.. 10/31/2010

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