SWOD48
SPC AC 310829
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SUBTLE BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF AN EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. THE LATEST ECMWF IS NOTABLY MORE AGGRESSIVE ALLOWING TX
UPPER LOW TO EJECT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL DURING THE DAY5
PERIOD...PRIMARILY DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH WILL INDUCE HEIGHT FALLS AT LOWER
LATITUDES THAN THE GFS. EVEN SO THE GFS DOES EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE
TX LOW TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING SHEAR. IF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN RETURN TO FL THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
RISK FOR ORGANIZED ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTH/TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
THE LATEST MODELS WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.
..DARROW.. 10/31/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment