SWODY1
SPC AC 180051
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT TUE APR 17 2007
VALID 180100Z - 181200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN TX
TONIGHT...
..NRN/CNTRL TX INTO THE ARKLATEX...
CONSIDERABLE COLD POOL GENERATION HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
QUASI-LINEAR MCS OVER N TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LEADING
EDGE OF SYSTEM EXTENDING ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM THE TX/OK
BORDER SWD TO NEAR TPL AS OF 0030Z. 00Z FTW SOUNDING INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DEEP...SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SFC-700
MB...THOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES WERE LIMITING MLCAPES TO 300-400 J/KG.
MOREOVER...STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WAS OBSERVED NEAR AND ABOVE THE
EL HEIGHT WITH ONLY MODEST WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY...COUPLED WITH COLD POOL INTERACTION
WITH A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD MAINTAIN
ONGOING MCS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
FARTHER TO THE SE...A SECONDARY LINE OF CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED FROM
W OF CLL TO NEAR BAZ AS OF 0030Z...ON THE IMMEDIATE CYCLONIC SIDE OF
70 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER S TX. WHILE CURRENT LEDBETTER TX
PROFILER INDICATES A VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES S
OF JET STREAK AXIS /REF 00Z CRP SOUNDING/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITHIN INFLOW AIR MASS OF THIS SECONDARY
CONVECTIVE LINE.
.MEAD.. 04/18/2007
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