DAY1SVR: Public Severe Weather Outlook (Automatic)

805
WOUS40 KWNS 211636
PWOSPC
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-220030-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

WESTERN KANSAS
WESTERN NEBRASKA
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TX NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG FORCING AND INTENSIFYING WIND FIELDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PARTS OF EASTERN NM/CO...AND PARTS OF
NEBRASKA AS AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HEATING AND FAVORABLY-TIMED ARRIVAL OF ENHANCED ASCENT WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND WIND MAX WILL SUPPORT RAPID STORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW OVER CO AND OTHER FRONTAL AND
DRYLINE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFYING CYCLONE.

INITIAL ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED GIVEN SOME
LIMITATIONS IN QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN TO THE HIGH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...WITH TIME...MOISTURE FLUX AND INTENSIFYING DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS SHOULD SUPPORT ROBUST AND LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND
SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS AND TORNADOES.
GIVEN INTENSITY OF FORECAST WIND FIELDS AND LIKELIHOOD FOR A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
NEAR/ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD TO TX...THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES PRIOR TO A POSSIBLE TRANSITION
TOWARD SEGMENTED SQUALL LINE THROUGH LATE EVENING. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AFTER DARK
AND...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES COULD REMAIN A POSSIBILITY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX...WESTERN OK...AND WESTERN KS AFTER DARK.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..CARBIN/CORFIDI.. 04/21/2007

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