SWODY2
SPC AC 110556
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT WED APR 11 2007
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...
..SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE UPR FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON THU. POTENT MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE ENEWD...REACHING THE GRTLKS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY THU
NIGHT. STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP SEWD TO NRN FL...NRN GULF BASIN AND DEEP S TX BY 12Z THU.
MEANWHILE...A NEW IMPULSE...NOW APPROACHING 40N/130W...WILL DIG SEWD
INTO THE DESERT SW BY THU EVE. AHEAD OF THIS AMPLIFYING SYSTEM...A
WEAKER JETLET WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THU AFTN/EVE. TAIL
END OF THE FRONT ALONG DEEP S TX WILL REDEVELOP NWD...LIKELY
BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM NWRN TX TO THE UPR TX COAST BY LATE THU
EVE.
..SRN PLAINS...
ECMWF LONG-STANDING SUGGESTION OF A DEEP COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO
TX AND THE GULF COAST SEEMS VERY REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. THE
RESULT WILL BE FOR A DELAYED MOISTURE RETURN TO THE SRN PLAINS.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT BY LATE AFTN THU...40S DEW POINTS WILL BE
COMMON INTO THE SERN TX PNHDL AND SWRN OK...WITH PERHAPS 50S AS FAR
N AS I-20 IN CNTRL/W TX. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST
WEAK DESTABILIZATION...BUT MLCAPES WILL BE PROBABLY REMAIN AOB 500
J/KG. ISOLD TSTMS WILL STILL BE LIKELY ALONG NRN EDGE OF THE
STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NWRN EDGE OF THE RETURNING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SERN TX PNHDL INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. ANY
STORM THAT CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED COULD EVOLVE INTO HIGH-BASED
SUPERCELLS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT.
MAIN PART OF THE UPR TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD
WILL DEEPEN THE SFC LOW AND STRENGTHEN THE DRYLINE. BY THIS
TIME...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED AND TSTMS WILL EXPAND
N-S ALONG THE DRYLINE. AT THE SAME TIME...EVENING ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP ENEWD INTO OK AND N TX ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ THU NIGHT.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZE THE COLUMN YIELDING LARGE HAIL WITH SOME STORMS. THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A SFC-BASED STORM OR TWO MAY EVOLVE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT/DRYLINE OVERNIGHT IN W OR NW TX. THESE STORMS WOULD
HAVE ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND OR PERHAPS TORNADO THREATS.
.RACY.. 04/11/2007
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