SWODY2
SPC AC 190559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT THU APR 19 2007
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP INDUCE PRESSURE
FALLS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES...AND THUS A SLY FLOW/WARM ADVECTION
REGIME OVER THE PLAINS.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN U.S.
WITHIN LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGHING...AND A PRIMARILY
NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE EVENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...APPRECIABLE DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..NRN PLAINS SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
FEATURE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF LESS RETURN FLOW
INTO THE PLAINS AS WELL AS STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING.
THUS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE.
STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT -- PARTICULARLY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. THIS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORMS FROM KS/NEB NWD INTO THE
DAKOTAS.
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS...WITH LARGE RIDGE IN PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LARGELY NON-SEVERE.
GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH MID-EVENING FROM ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND NEB...WHERE MOST
FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF CAPE AND SHEAR SHOULD EXIST.
HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS ATTM TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED SUCH
THAT A SLIGHT RISK WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED THIS FORECAST.
.GOSS.. 04/19/2007
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