SWODY2
SPC AC 210508
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2007
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID AND LOWER
MO VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST...
..SYNOPSIS...
COMPACT UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER NRN KS/SRN NEB SUNDAY MORNING WILL
TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN.
IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW COINCIDENT WITH UPPER LOW OVER
S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP NEWD INTO WRN WI BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD THROUGH THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND MID/LOWER MO VALLEYS.
..MID/LOWER MO VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST...
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS /SLIGHTLY ELEVATED/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
SUNDAY MORNING INVOF SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS WITHIN STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT OVER PORTIONS OF NRN KS INTO SRN NEB. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. OTHER MORE SURFACE-BASED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY DOWNSTREAM FROM
SURFACE LOW WITHIN SYSTEM WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER PORTIONS OF NRN MO
INTO IA AND SRN MN. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG THE
ERN EDGE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY ATTENDANT TO MID-LEVEL COLD
POOL...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO AS IT
MOVES/DEVELOPS NEWD.
THE MOST INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO EITHER EVOLVE FROM
MORNING ELEVATED STORMS OR DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE FRONT BY AFTERNOON
OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO NWRN MO WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. ASIDE FROM IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
UPPER LOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWS WITH A THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO
EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ALONG COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING EWD INTO
PARTS OF WI AND NRN IL SUNDAY NIGHT.
..OZARK PLATEAU INTO ERN OK/WRN AR...
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SWWD ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR WEAK DRYLINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
HOWEVER...WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT WEAK LAPSE RATES
IN THE WAKE OF UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IS POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS THAT THE WEAK INSTABILITY /PARTIALLY
ARISING FROM LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE/ SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT.
.MEAD.. 04/21/2007
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