SWODY2
SPC AC 270533
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT FRI APR 27 2007
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD
DURING THE PERIOD WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
AND CENTRAL REGIONS. ALL THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH BLOCKING PATTERN
DUE TO WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NWRN MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE...COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING SWD THROUGH
THE SRN PENINSULA OF FL WITH SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. LOW PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE SEWD DURING THE
PERIOD INTO S CENTRAL ONTARIO. COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW
SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL MN AND ND INTO SRN MT.
..SRN FL PENINSULA...
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES SWD. THIS WILL MAKE THE
AIR MASS POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 800 AND 1200 J/KG
TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THERMAL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE WEAK...FCST SOUNDINGS DID INDICATE MID LEVEL DRYING WHICH
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..SWRN AZ INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND S TX...
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXTEND SE-NW JUST SW OF THE RIO GRANDE SATURDAY. WITH WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NWRN MEXICO AIDING THIS TRANSPORT...SIGNAL
IS THERE THAT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THIS REGION DURING THE DAY. PROGS SHOW THAT AIR MASS
WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER WITH MUCAPE TO
500-700 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -2 AND -5 ACROSS THIS
REGION.
.MCCARTHY.. 04/27/2007
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