SWODY3
SPC AC 220726
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL PARTS OF KS/OK SWD
INTO NWRN AND N-CNTRL TX...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER
MO VALLEY SWD INTO PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL TX...
..SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
THE EWD PROGRESSION OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN
ROCKIES INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY THREE PERIOD. IN
THE LOW-LEVELS...SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARD TO THE
TRACK OF THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW FROM SWRN KS OR THE OK/NRN TX
PNHDLS TO CNTRL/SERN KS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE LOWER MO AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS WHILE
DRYLINE SHIFTS EWD FROM THE ERN OK/TX PNHDLS INTO CNTRL OK SWD TO
CNTRL TX BY 25/12Z.
..SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
..CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A FAIRLY CLASSIC SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS AS 100-120 KT 250
MB/50-70 KT 500 MB JET STREAKS AND A CONCENTRATED ZONE OF HEIGHT
FALLS OVERSPREAD SYSTEM/S WARM SECTOR. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
MASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S/ BENEATH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AFTERNOON AIR MASS.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY AFTERNOON FROM
VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN KS SWD ALONG DRYLINE INTO WRN OK
AND NWRN TX WITH STORMS MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD/NEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND
ERN PORTIONS OF KS/OK AND N TX MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WHILE
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE MODE...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER A LARGE AREA INDICATE A
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND
LARGE HAIL.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AS FAR NE AS THE LOWER MO
AND MID MS VALLEYS WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ALONG AND N OF WARM
FRONT...AND AS FAR SW AS SWRN TX ALONG DRYLINE.
.MEAD.. 04/22/2007
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