DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 280915
SWOD48
SPC AC 280915

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0415 AM CDT SAT APR 28 2007

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

..DISCUSSION...

MODELS TAKE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AT MID LEVELS ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON APRIL 30 WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON MAY 1 AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MAY 2. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH MAY 2 AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AREA ON MAY 1.

MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. DURING THE PERIOD BETWEEN MAY 2-5.
THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS AND IS ALSO THE MOST SRN
TAKING THE MAIN VORT MAX/LOW CIRCULATION OFF THE NRN CA COAST BY 00Z
ON MAY 4 THEN INTO SRN CA 00Z ON MAY 5. THE UKMET IS A BIT FASTER
TAKING A BROADER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA BY 00Z MAY 4. THE
GFS IS THE MORE NRN TRACK MODEL TAKING THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM INTO
THE OREGON COAST BEFORE DIGGING THE SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY 00Z MAY 5.

THUS...THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN ISSUANCE OF SEVERE
AREAS AT THIS TIME.

.MCCARTHY.. 04/28/2007

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