SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110219
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-110315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN OK...NE TX...SW AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 121...
VALID 110219Z - 110315Z
AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 121 MAY BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z.
WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...INHIBITION HAS INCREASED FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED PARCELS NEAR TRIPLE POINT LOW SOUTHEAST OF
LAWTON...AND EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG WARM FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER.
RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING... SPREADING
TOWARD THE OZARK PLATEAU...IS SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AS IT HAS BECOME APPARENT THAT EVEN SOUTHERN MOST
CELL...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MCALESTER...HAS BECOME ELEVATED ABOVE WARM
FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER. LOCALIZED/SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
COULD ACCOMPANY THIS STORM NORTH OF THE RED RIVER INTO AREAS NORTH
OF TEXARKANA AR BY 04-05Z...BUT THE RISK FOR A BROADER SCALE
DAMAGING WIND EVENT NOW SEEMS NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONGLY
SHEARED REGIME...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...HAIL
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEVERE LIMITS MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY STRONGEST
CONVECTION.
.KERR.. 04/11/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
34999717 35499629 35579489 35089400 33969362 33499397
33309442 33509534 33849683 34049707
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