MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0456

ACUS11 KWNS 111844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111844
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-111945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN FL PANHANDLE...SRN/SERN AL AND SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111844Z - 111945Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE/SRN-SERN AL
INTO SWRN GA.

SURFACE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL PARTS OF AL SSEWD TO THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE...THEN
EXTENDED MORE EWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE.

AIR MASS IN THE VICINITY AND S OF WARM FRONT IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED TWO STORMS
OFFSHORE THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AT 20 W PFN AND 35 SW PFN...WITH BOTH
STORMS INDICATING LOW LEVEL ROTATION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
SOMEWHAT WEAK...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 35-45 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES AROUND
200 M2/S2/ ARE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

.PETERS.. 04/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

29788433 29328503 29748590 30108650 30408693 31038756
31598770 31908695 31558560 31348470 30898388 29978340

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