SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130431
TXZ000-130630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0475
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CDT THU APR 12 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX INTO THE TX PNHDL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 131...
VALID 130431Z - 130630Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND 05Z AND A
NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT INSTABILITY AXES CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NWWD THROUGH THE CONCHO VALLEY AND W-CNTRL TX INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND TX S PLAINS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF 45-55 KT SSELY
LLJ. TSTM AREAL COVERAGE HAS TENDED TO DIMINISH OVER THE PAST
HOUR...PRESUMABLY AS STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NWRN OK
AND SWRN KS...AND AWAY FROM DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS FARTHER TO
THE SW.
THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER BY
07-09Z...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WILL REINTENSIFY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM INTO WRN NM. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT RENEWED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND N OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW OVER SERN NM NEWD THROUGH THE TX S PLAINS
AND THEN MORE EWD THROUGH NWRN TX. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO FORM
SWD ALONG AND E OF DRYLINE WHICH HAS RETREATED TO JUST W OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN.
THE PRESENCE OF QUITE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-8.5 C PER KM/
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUED INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES
APPROACHING 1500-1800 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
.MEAD.. 04/13/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
32920290 33540303 34780296 35380281 35970196 36000099
35460033 34400008 33470019 32630038 31890101 32120262
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