SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130736
OKZ000-TXZ000-130900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0476
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W TX...TX/OK PNHDLS...WRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 132...
VALID 130736Z - 130900Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 132
CONTINUES.
WHILE AN INITIAL IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TROUGH
IS NOW WEAKENING WITHIN BROADER SCALE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO
TURN EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
CONSEQUENTLY...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
AND...PARCELS IN MOIST RETURN FLOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS ARE NOT
REACHING LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION UNTIL BEING LIFTED ABOVE A
MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...AROUND 700 MB...ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS OCCURRING ABOVE A COLD SURGE TO
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WHICH IS ALREADY ADVANCING THROUGH THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT CAPE FOR THE ELEVATED MOIST LAYER IS
INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG. IN A FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER
CELLS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION INTO EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH 09-10Z. HAIL POTENTIAL WILL TEND TO DIMINISH WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME...AS CAPE FOR INCREASINGLY ELEVATED MOIST LAYER WEAKENS AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
.KERR.. 04/13/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
36350247 36660129 36209963 35279898 34609897 33690012
33720142 34280227 35100263 35790267
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