SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131211
KSZ000-COZ000-131815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0478
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0711 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS AND SERN CO
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 131211Z - 131815Z
HEAVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. GUSTY NELY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH WILL
AID IN BLOWING SNOW.
LATEST RADAR IMAGE INDICATED EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION OVER SERN
CO/SWRN KS WHILE IR IMAGERY SHOWS MODEST CLOUD TOP COOLING. BOTH ARE
REPRESENTATIVE OF INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER THE AREA AS
THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER SWRN NM. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SFC FREEZING
LINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR GLD SWWD TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD COLORADO. AS
PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...A SWD
MOVEMENT OF THE SFC FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH WRN KS. THUS
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS A LINE FROM
LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY BY 18Z. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING WILL SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE
SNOWBURSTS WITH 1 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES. AS THE SFC LOW OVER ECENTRAL
NM DEVELOPS EWD INTO THE REGION OF GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS /OVER THE
SERN TX PANHANDLE AT 12Z/ AND STRONG WAA CONTINUES OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE...RESULTANT STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING N-S ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. SUSTAINED
WINDS SHOULD REACH 20-25 MPH BY 16-18Z WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
BLOWING SNOW.
.CROSBIE.. 04/13/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
38940243 38160381 37170342 37160174 37320104 38260055
39260092
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