SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131712
TXZ000-131815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0479
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/NCNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 131712Z - 131815Z
WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS EJECTING EWD ACROSS NM WITH LEADING EDGE
OF STRONGER FORCING NOW SPREADING INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MIXING HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TX WITH WELL
DEFINED DRY LINE BEGINNING TO SURGE EAST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN.
DOWNSTREAM...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH WITH 60S SFC DEW
POINTS INTO STONEWALL AND HASKELL COUNTIES. LATEST VIS IMAGERY
SUGGESTS CU FIELD IS EXPANDING/DEEPENING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...ALONG/EAST OF DRY LINE TO THE W-N OF ABI. IT APPEARS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN MOIST SECTOR FROM THIS
AGITATED...INCREASINGLY BUOYANT AIRMASS BY 20Z. SUPERCELLS SHOULD
EVOLVE WITHIN THIS STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THEN QUICKLY MOVE
NEWD INTO THAT REGION BOUNDED BY ABI-SPS-FTW ZONE. TORNADOES APPEAR
LIKELY WITH STRONGEST SUPERCELLS...WHILE LARGE HAIL SHOULD ALSO BE
COMMON.
.DARROW.. 04/13/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
33350055 34109919 33589808 32309774 32429928 32470050
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