SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131737
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-131930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN OK INTO SWRN AR...AND EXTREME NWRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 131737Z - 131930Z
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED AFTER
18Z.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT WELL SOUTH INTO TX WITH STABLE
SURFACE AIR TO THE N INTO OK AND AR. 850 MB FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS
SRN OK TO NEAR TXK AT 17Z AND WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY NWD AND STALL
NEAR I-40 BY MID AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
AREA-WIDE AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS ALOFT. SEVERE THREAT WILL
INCREASE WITH TIME AS EFFECTIVE PARCEL LEVELS DROP FROM NEAR 750 MB
TO AROUND 850 MB. THIS WILL INCREASE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY WHICH
CAN BE INGESTED BY THE UPDRAFTS...AND WILL ALLOW STORMS TO GRADUALLY
CHANGE IN CHARACTER AND BECOME SUPERCELLS.
.JEWELL.. 04/13/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...
35869660 35889573 35599457 34709314 34079220 33439225
32959339 33469419 34279640 34059756 33919859 33739994
33890038 34530005 35079931 35749818 35859698
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