SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132208
LAZ000-TXZ000-132345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0482
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX INTO WRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 132208Z - 132345Z
SUPERCELL AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 14/00Z AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
REGIONAL RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
CONSIDERABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS OCCURRING ALONG PRIMARY LLJ AXIS
AS EVIDENCED BY WEAK RETURNS OVER SERN TX TRANSITIONING TO ELEVATED
TSTMS OVER NERN TX INTO NWRN LA AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT FORCES PARCELS
TO THEIR LFC NEAR/N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. 18Z LCH/20Z SHV OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS INDICATED A CAP IN PLACE AROUND 850 MB...HOWEVER THIS
PERSISTENT FORCING ALONG LLJ AXIS COUPLED WITH A
MOISTENING/DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER ARE LIKELY RESULTING IN EROSION
OF THIS FEATURE. INDEED...LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT SURFACE-BASED TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 13/23Z-14/03Z.
THE COMBINATION OF MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT
OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-350 M2/S2 INDICATES
THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.
.MEAD.. 04/13/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
29219516 30249569 31499549 32219516 32599467 32639405
32609346 32029298 31119287 30439326 29869364
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