MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0522

ACUS11 KWNS 210631
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210631
SDZ000-NEZ000-210730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB THROUGH CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153...

VALID 210631Z - 210730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153
CONTINUES. SOME THREAT FOR HAIL MAY PERSIST FARTHER N INTO SRN AND
CNTRL SD. HOWEVER...OVERALL TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO DECREASE
IN INTENSITY AND ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING PRIMARILY WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION
AND LIFT ON NOSE OF STRONG 70 KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM NRN NEB INTO SRN
AND ERN SD. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF MODERATE MUCAPE AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM NRN NEB INTO SRN SD. ZONE OF LIFT
AND INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT NWD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WHILE THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY CAPPED S OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR
HAIL NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION S OF
ONGOING CONVECTION...RESERVOIR OF PRE-EXISTING CAPE WILL LIKELY
DECREASE AS IT ADVECTS NWD DUE TO CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING.

.DIAL.. 04/21/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

43169783 42839896 43190047 43310159 44160098 44619874
44099745

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