SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211944
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-212115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...TX/OK PNHDLS...ERN NM/WRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 211944Z - 212115Z
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
ERN NM/ERN CO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DEVELOP EAST AND INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. WATCHES WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF ERN NM/CO...EWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN
TX/OK/KS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A COMPACT BUT POTENT IMPULSE
PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SWRN NM THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF
THE VORT CENTER HAS ALLOWED THE DRYLINE TO SHARPEN ACROSS ERN NM AS
LEE-SIDE CYCLONE CONSOLIDATES OVER SERN CO. STRONG AND DEEP-LAYER
SWLY FLOW WITH 70KT AT 500MB WILL PROMOTE RAPID EWD MIXING OF THE
DRYLINE ACROSS ERN NM AND TO THE CO/KS BORDER THROUGH 21Z. WHILE AIR
MASS AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE REMAINS CAPPED...STRONG LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IN THE WAKE OF LOW CLOUD
FIELD NOW MOVING AWAY/ERODING OVER THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN
KS...WILL RESULT IN RAPID DECREASE IN INHIBITION.
CAPPING HAS AIDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND
LOW CLOUDS/LIMITED MIXING APPEAR TO HAVE MAINTAINED BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND ENHANCED CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. LATEST GUIDANCE
IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING THAT RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR IN A N-S CORRIDOR COINCIDENT WITH THE DRYLINE AND LEADING EDGE
OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING...FROM ERN CO INTO ERN NM AROUND
21Z. INITIALLY...DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD PROMOTE HIGH-BASED ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ARE MORE
FOCUSED...PERHAPS NEAR THE LEE LOW. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE LOWER LFC AND GREATER LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN
THE UPDRAFT LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT LONGER-LIVED MESOCYCLONES
AND TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.
.CARBIN.. 04/21/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
37480335 38240356 38720393 39350358 39960165 37100172
34950178 33660245 33290357 33760386
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