SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220426
MNZ000-220630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0535
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...W CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MN INTO NERN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 158...159...
VALID 220426Z - 220630Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
158...159...CONTINUES.
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG A BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH LARGE MCS OVER SD INTO MN. ANALYSIS OF THE 03Z RUN OF THE RUC
INDICATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION
OF UPR LVL JET STREAK THAT EXTENDS FROM ERN ND NEWD INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL JET/ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION
FROM ERN KS INTO NWRN WI IS ENHANCING UPWARD ASCENT ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTENING OF THE AIR MASS CONTINUE TO LOWER POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY AS MLCAPES ARE NOW DOWN TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. RUC MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8C/KM
SUPPORTING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
AREA NE OF WW158 AND 159 WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL
WW DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH HAIL.
.MCCARTHY.. 04/22/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
47429474 47479448 47549401 47589328 47829250 47709186
47349199 46819284 46089313 45829378 46179435
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