SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222007
MOZ000-KSZ000-222200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND WRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 222007Z - 222200Z
AN ISOLATED SVR STORM MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT GIVEN THE MARGINAL/LIMITED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT...A
WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE CU DEVELOPING ALONG A
DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR TOP SWD TO 30 W OF CNU. RECENT RUC/NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN
STOUT ACROSS THE AREA /SOUTH OF THE NEWD EJECTING UPPER LOW OVER ERN
NEB/ AS EVIDENT BY THE STRONG DRYING NOTED ON WV IMAGERY. THUS
DESPITE INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPES AROUND
750-1000 J/KG...WEAK 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SVR TSTM THREAT ENOUGH THAT A
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
.CROSBIE.. 04/22/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
37119445 37619411 38679371 39359379 39409406 39399477
39049536 38689587 38089594 37419592 37119586 37089506
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