SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231852
MNZ000-232045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0543
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS SWD INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE TX
PANHANDLE/WRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 231852Z - 232045Z
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
AMA 18Z RAOB SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAP...BUT DAYTIME HEATING
IS ONGOING ALONG NRN/WRN FRINGES OF THICKER CLOUD SHIELD OF WRN N
TX/WRN OK. AS HEATING CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTENT/WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES ALONG THE
DRYLINE...CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT -- WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE SHALLOW CU FIELD
IS NOW DEVELOPING. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAP LAYER...WHICH COMBINED WITH AMPLE
SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPMENT.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BY EARLY EVENING WILL ALSO SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
.GOSS.. 04/23/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
47429474 47479448 47549401 47589328 47829250 47709186
47349199 46819284 46089313 45829378 46179435
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment