MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0548

ACUS11 KWNS 232315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232315
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-240115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0548
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL AND SRN KS...NCENTRAL OK
AND SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232315Z - 240115Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM FAR WCENTRAL KS ESEWD INTO SCENTRAL/SERN KS AND
EXTREME NRN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES
AND DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE INCREASES. A WW IS LIKELY FROM AREAS WEST
OF I-35 BY 00Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE CU DEVELOPING OVER EXTREME
NCENTRAL OK AND SCENTRAL KS ALONG A WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL TSTMS
DEVELOPING OVER WW 166 /SOUTH OF DDC/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. AIRMASS NORTH OF WW 166 AND ACROSS
WCENTRAL AND SRN KS/FAR NRN OK WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
FROM 750-1500 J/KG. GIVEN MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...AND
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.../0-1 KM VECTOR SHEAR AROUND
25 KTS OBSERVED JUST NORTH OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ON BOTH THE DDC VWP AND HAVILAND PROFILER/ AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE ERN EDGE OF ANY
WELL ORGANIZED SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE NEAR I-35 BASED ON RECENT
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND EXPECTED LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL JET THIS
EVENING. THUS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN KS AND SWRN MO...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA ATTM.

.CROSBIE.. 04/23/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...PUB...

39710185 38490210 38039941 36779853 36829734 36969538
37009465 36949385 37329392 37519496 37869645

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