SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240038
NYZ000-PAZ000-240245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/ECENTRAL NY...WRN/CENTRAL PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 240038Z - 240245Z
ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT
PROGRESSES EWD AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 02Z. SVR THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND THAT TIME. THUS GIVEN LIMITED
REMAINING SVR THREAT...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
00Z BUF SOUNDING INDICATED VERY STRONG WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS WCENTRAL/SWRN NY AND NWRN
PA. WARM/DRY CONDITIONS EXIST AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE...WITH A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /NOTED ON THE 00Z ALB SOUNDING/. THUS
DESPITE MINIMAL MUCAPES /LESS THAN 500 J/KG ON THE 00Z PIT SOUNDING/
PRECIP INDUCED COLD DOWNDRAFTS INTO THIS DEEPLY MIXED LAYER ARE
LIKELY AIDING IN MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE
SFC /AS EVIDENCE BY THE RECENT SFC OBS AT SYRACUSE/. AS LOW LEVELS
COOL EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT SVR
WIND THREAT TO BEGIN DIMINISHING AS CONVECTIVE LINE REACHES NCENTRAL
PA AND ECENTRAL NY.
.CROSBIE.. 04/24/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...
43977458 43217594 41957828 40908048 40268032 40417847
40947679 41657544 42207471 42937362 43917359
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