MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0552

ACUS11 KWNS 240154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240154
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-240400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0552
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0854 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/WRN KS...EXTREME N-CENTRAL
OK...EXTREME SWRN NEB.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 168...

VALID 240154Z - 240400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 168 CONTINUES.

SVR THREAT MAY SHIFT NWD OR EXPAND OVER MORE OF NRN KS AND/OR SRN
NEB DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INVOF STRENGTHENING LLJ.
MEANWHILE...ISOLATED/TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EVIDENT AT 145Z OVER
COMANCHE AND WALLACE/SHERMAN COUNTIES...EACH WITH HISTORY OF TORNADO
REPORTS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT HAS REDEVELOPED/SHIFTED NWD
OVER KS...CURRENTLY INVOF GLD/RSL/SLN/CNU LINE. HOWEVER...BACKED
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND RELATIVELY SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LINGER
ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER WARM FRONTAL ANALYSIS OVER SRN KS..AND
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED NOW THAT SFC DIABATIC HEATING NO LONGER IS
OCCURRING. ISALLOBARIC FORCING ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS...ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE OVER CO...WILL MAINTAIN BACKED WINDS
ACROSS WW REGION. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLY
LARGE -- AS EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER DATA...MODIFIED 00Z DDC RAOB
AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. 150-250 J/KG SRH NOW EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THIS REGION SHOULD INCREASE WITH ONSET OF 50 KT LLJ. SFC MOIST
ADVECTION WILL COUNTERACT WEAK SFC COOLING ENOUGH TO KEEP EFFECTIVE
INFLOW PARCELS ROOTED AT OR VERY NEAR SFC FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
THEREFORE...PRIND TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR ANY DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS...ALONG WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION.

.EDWARDS.. 04/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...

37020201 39940192 40090062 40039928 39509796 37999673
36979668 36619740 36669819 36999856

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