SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241003
KSZ000-NEZ000-241130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0556
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NEB / N-CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170...
VALID 241003Z - 241130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170
CONTINUES.
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DECREASING ACROSS
REMAINING PORTION OF WW AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. WW 170 WILL LIKELY
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11Z.
AS OF 0950Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN
NEB...DRIVEN LARGELY BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
TO THE N OF WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS
BORDER SEWD INTO W-CNTRL MO. WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN MASKED BY A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE COLD POOL EMANATING FROM MORE
INTENSE TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER S-CNTRL NEB INVOF OF EAR.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE
STORMS ARE ELEVATED WITHIN NRN EDGE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THEREFORE...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS EVEN LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
THESE STORMS CONTINUE EWD THROUGH S-CNTRL NEB.
GIVEN THAT PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OVER WRN INTO CNTRL KS THROUGH MID MORNING...STORMS SHOULD TEND TO
WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT E INTO SERN NEB.
.MEAD.. 04/24/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
40739758 39009778 38930006 40200036 41140038 41129796
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