MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0563

ACUS11 KWNS 241903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241903
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-242030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0563
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/WRN AND CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241903Z - 242030Z

..AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH WITHIN ONE TO TWO HOURS...

LONG RADAR LOOPS REVEAL THE PRESENCE OF A POSSIBLE GRAVITY
WAVE...NOTED ON COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY DATA THIS MORNING EXITING ERN
OKLAHOMA. THAT WAVE APPEARS TO BE TIED TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER
CNTRL MO THIS AFTN. THE AREA BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH IS ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN KS INTO WRN MO...WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF GRAVITY
WAVE IS CURRENTLY INHIBITING CONVECTION.

THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM TOPEKA SUGGESTS THAT WEAK CAPPING STILL
EXISTED...BUT THAT SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S COMBINED WITH INCREASING
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS POCKETS OF CLEARING WITHIN THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD...WHICH IS
ALLOWING FOR GREATER HEATING TO OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTN. EXPECTED
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL.

.TAYLOR.. 04/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...

36739348 37249604 39899713 40049454 39879337 38789309
37269268

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